![]() This alone should be be considered the entire process. One reason his interception rate stands out is probably that most players who throw that many interceptions aren't considered skilled enough for a high pick. even with the interception issues considered. ![]() Maybe it speaks to Winston's on field talent that he's being considered for such a high pick. He also potentially could have up to three games left to lower this rate. Winston's interception rate last season as a freshman was a much lower 2.6%. Now there are obviously some other things to consider. Winston hitting this mark would still leave him at a too high 3.8%. It is encouraging at least that three of our players above made that list, and a fourth dropped his albeit by less than half a point. Only 6 of the original 51 managed to drop their interception rate by half a point. The supporting cast is also better, but in general quarterbacks have more to do with interceptions than the supporting cast. The opponents on the next level are more skilled and the defenses more sophisticated. High interception rates might be an indicator a player will have a tough time finding success on the next level, though.Ĭan Jameis improve? Of the 51 quarterbacks who threw at least 200 passes, I found only 10 of them (19%) had their interception rate go down. Players like Jimmy Clausen, Brady Quinn, Kellen Clemens (sign), Geno Smith (double sigh), and Tim Tebow (triple sigh) could tell you that. It doesn't necessarily follow that a low inteception rate leads to NFL success. From the rest you have one success story (Ryan) and six unsuccessful stories (Edwards, Stanton, Losman, Henne, Young, and Whitehurst). Mallett, Glennon, Tannehill, and Manziel are too early in their careers to judge. Stanton got some hype early in the year because he was playing on a Cardinals team that was winning, but he hasn't had a successful career. This does seem somewhat alarming since there is a certain point at which a quarterback turns the ball over too frequently to be effective. Only 11 of the 59 I found (18%) were even at 2.8%, a point and a half lower. The quarterback nearest to him was Trent Edwards who was a half point lower at 3.8%, a fairly substantial difference. Through a combination of working by hand and transcribing, I found that Winston has a higher interception rate this season than any quarterback drafted in the top three rounds since 2004 did in his final college year. The final college season is when in theory these players will be developmentally as close to finished as they will be before entering the NFL. I crunched the numbers of the final college season of every quarterback I could find drafted in the first three rounds over the past decade. I wondered whether this set Winston apart among recent high NFL Draft quarterback prospects. Winston has thrown at least 1 pick in 9 of his 11 starts this season. That is a really high rate of interceptions. For reference, Geno Smith is at 4.3% this season. In the NFL that is an extremely high rate. He has thrown 17 interceptions on 392 passes. ![]() But there has been something noticeable about his performance on the field this year. Jameis Winston is obviously a controversial NFL Draft prospect for reasons that have nothing to do with the football field.
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